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Mass shootings are often quickly politicized as lawmakers and members of the public alike grapple with how to address senseless gun violence. But organizations on both sides of the issue have been working in Washington for decades, contributing to decades of political gridlock broken in June 2022 by the bipartisan gun safety bill

National outcry for solutions after several high-profile mass shootings preceded recent legislative action. Less than two weeks after a May 10 shooting left 10 people in the Tops Friendly Markets in Buffalo, N.Y., dead and several others injured, 19 children and two adults were killed in an elementary school shooting in Uvalde, Texas. Between the two mass casualty events, another shooting left one dead and multiple injured at a Taiwanese church in California. The California and New York shootings are being investigated as hate crimes.  

Congress passed bipartisan legislation that expanded background checks for buyers under 21, funds state intervention programs including so-called "red flag" laws and allocates millions for mental health and school safety resources. The bill also cracks down on gun trafficking and straw purchasers and expands the ban on domestic abusers to include serious or recent partners. Fifteen Senate Republicans voted with Democrats to pass the legislation, although a majority of congressional Republicans, backed by prominent gun rights groups including the National Rifle Association, opposed the bill as too broad.

President Joe Biden signed the bill into law on June 25, 2022.

A week later, a gunman killed seven people at a 4th of July parade in the Highland Park neighborhood in Chicago. The killing highlighted acknowledged limitations of the bipartisan bill to stop such mass shootings, but broader bans on assault rifles or other weapons are unlikely to pass the current Congress.

We’ve been here before

Deadly shootings across the country shock the conscience and spur debate in both communities and Congress.

In April 2019, a shooting at a synagogue in the town of Poway in Southern California killed one and injured three in what officials deem a hate crime. The Poway synagogue shooting came exactly six months after a man spouting anti-Semitic slurs opened fire on worshippers at the Tree of Life synagogue in an attack that left 11 dead. The Anti-Defamation League described the Tree of Life shooting as the deadliest attack on the Jewish community in American history.

The deadliest mass shooting in modern American history occurred one year earlier, in Oct. 2017, at a Las Vegas music festival, resulting in the deaths of 58 concertgoers and injuring hundreds more.

Only 16 months before that, a gunman armed with a handgun and a semi-automatic rifle murdered 49 people and injured 58 at an Orlando nightclub in what was then the country's worst mass shooting. The horrific attack in Orlando came less than six months after a man and a woman opened fire at a San Bernardino, Calif., social services center, killing 14 and injuring 22.

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Despite the outpouring of grief and sympathy that followed the San Bernardino incident on Dec. 2, 2015, the very next day the Senate rejected a bill to tighten background check requirements on would-be gun buyers --- just as it did in 2013, shortly after a lone gunman killed six adults and 20 children at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown, Conn.

The issue of how to strike a balance between gun rights and public safety has been a political hot potato for years. Prominent gun rights organizations consistently spent millions more on lobbying in Washington than their gun control counterparts, according to OpenSecrets data, contributing to decades-long stalemate.

TABLE: Gun rights vs. gun control lobbying, 1998-2022

Year Gun Control Gun Rights Gun Manufacturing
2022 $1,776,680 $8,580,056 $2,335,000
2021 $2,913,633 $15,766,760 $2,430,000
2020 $2,100,000 $10,791,647 $1,640,000
2019 $2,330,000 $12,166,438 $1,690,000
2018 $2,039,212 $12,453,572 $1,238,540
2017 $1,942,415 $11,440,684 $1,330,400
2016 $1,657,992 $11,181,199 $1,150,000
2015 $1,678,956 $11,406,347 $995,000
2014 $1,942,396 $12,013,482 $828,500
2013 $2,197,765 $15,292,052 $930,000
2012 $250,000 $6,129,911 $979,500
2011 $280,000 $5,580,651 $1,295,000
2010 $290,000 $5,847,597 $1,505,000
2009 $251,425 $5,209,870 $1,554,000
2008 $150,000 $4,128,771 $1,370,000
2007 $208,374 $3,962,242 $1,288,000
2006 $90,100 $3,184,231 $1,400,000
2005 $230,000 $4,070,587 $1,395,000
2004 $1,352,346 $4,342,400 $880,000
2003 $1,021,665 $4,283,326 $672,000
2002 $1,842,054 $5,684,546 $660,000
2001 $2,113,699 $6,236,161 $708,000
2000 $440,000 $6,710,758 $500,000
1999 $840,000 $5,768,396 $918,570
1998 $160,000 $4,298,393 $730,000

One small gun control measure undertaken by the Trump administration was the banning of bump stocks, a tool that allows semi-automatic rifles to fire as fast as automatics, after the Las Vegas shooting. The ban, which took effect in March 2019, requires existing bump stocks to be turned in to the government or destroyed.

But former President Donald Trump repeatedly pledged to protect Second Amendment rights and often warned gun owners that their Second Amendment rights are "under assault." In an April 2019 speech to NRA members, Trump announced he will not ratify America's participation in the international Arms Trade Treaty, which would provide some international oversight on arms sales.

In opposition to the Republicans, the Democratic-controlled House prioritized passing gun control legislation. The House previously passed two measures with some bipartisan support that strengthen and expand the background check process and reauthorized the Violence Against Women Act, opposed by the NRA because of the bill's measure that seeks to prevent domestic abusers from obtaining guns.

In June 2016, Democrats mounted a successful filibuster that forced Senate Republicans to vote on four gun control proposals --- none of which passed.

House Democrats also proposed their own broader legislative response to mass shootings in June 2022. The House passed the "Protecting Our Kids Act" with some Republican support in early June, but the Senate opted to move forward with its own bipartisan gun safety legislation that Biden ultimately signed into law later that month.

A .44 caliber political issue

The last major piece of gun control legislation to make it into law prior to the bipartisan gun bill passed in June was the assault weapons ban, passed in 1994 as part of a larger crime-related bill approved by Congress and signed by then-President Bill Clinton. But the ban, which applied to the manufacture of 19 specific models of semi-automatic firearms and other guns with similar features, expired in 2004, and repeated attempts to renew it failed.

81% of Americans told Pew Research Center in 2021 that they support expanding background checks to include private firearm sales and purchases at gun shows, including a majority of Republican respondents. Preventing individuals with mental illnesses from purchasing guns is also supported by the vast majority of people on both sides of the political spectrum.

Some Democrats thought their support for the assault weapons ban cost them control of Congress in the 1994 midterm elections. Whether or not that's true, there's little question that the politics of gun ownership have swung to the right. Republicans largely oppose gun control, and Democrats are split, with some lawmakers cautious about going against the views of more conservative constituencies, especially in rural districts.

TABLE: Top 20 recipients of funds from gun rights interests among members of Congress, 1989-2022*

Member Party Office Total from Gun Rights Outside Gun Control Opposed Outside Gun Rights Support
Steve Scalise R LA01 $447,735 $861 $7,323
Ted Cruz R TXS2 $442,333 $8,011 $154,505
Ron Johnson R WIS2 $400,173 $1,021,391 $1,874,371
John Cornyn R TXS1 $345,325 $861 $263,275
Kevin McCarthy R CA23 $296,941 $861 $18,981
Lindsey Graham R SCS2 $283,730 $861 $187,320
Mitch McConnell R KYS1 $257,609 $30,621 $828,414
Marco Rubio R FLS2 $257,588 $861 $1,008,030
Rand Paul R KYS2 $253,489 $861 $100,609
John Thune R SDS1 $228,639 $861 $581,469
Pete Sessions R TX17 $213,426 $12,861 $30,844
Steven Daines R MTS2 $197,996 $861 $458,985
John Kennedy R LAS2 $184,692 $861 $205,888
Ken Calvert R CA42 $184,676 $861 $6,379
Dan Crenshaw R TX02 $171,594 $17,993 $2,681
Pat Toomey R PAS1 $162,676 $152,102 $956,630
Roy Blunt R MOS1 $154,543 $861 $1,410,401
James M Inhofe R OKS2 $139,835 $861 $15,446
Marsha Blackburn R TNS1 $139,418 $861 $642,427
Chuck Grassley R IAS1 $129,266 $861 $294,061

Gun control versus gun rights was a major issue of the 2020 presidential election. One Democratic candidate, Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.) made gun control the central issue he ran on. The necessity of more gun control legislation was essentially standard among all Democratic candidates, several of whom own guns.

Despite highly publicized mass shootings, no earlier gun control measures, with the exception of the bump stock ban, made it into law prior to the recent bipartisan gun safety legislation.

That includes the so-called Manchin-Toomey amendment to require background checks in all commercial gun sales, including those at gun shows --- the closest attempt in recent history to reform gun laws. The measure first came to a vote in April 2013, four months after the Newtown shooting. It failed, getting only 54 of the 60 votes it needed to overcome a filibuster.

OpenSecrets found that nearly all of the 46 senators who voted against the amendment had accepted significant campaign contributions from the political action committees of gun rights groups. There were exceptions to the rule, notably the measure's sponsors, Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Pat Toomey (R-Pa.). But in general, the correlation was a close one.

No senators who were in office for the 2013 vote changed their position when the provision came up again after the San Bernardino killings in 2015. And the second time around, only 48 votes of support for expanding background checks could be found. Another bill put to a vote that day sponsored by Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) --- would have prohibited individuals on the federal government's terrorist watchlist from buying guns. It was rejected as well.

Guns and money

There's no denying that much of the strength of the leading gun rights organization -- the NRA -- comes from its broad and passionate membership base and its mastery of grassroots politics.

But if lawmakers seem to tiptoe around gun issues, that could be in part because the NRA and other gun rights groups are loaded for bear with a seemingly limitless stash of cash ammunition.

Gun rights interests gave more than $75.1 million to federal candidates, parties and outside spending groups from 1989 through the third quarter of 2022, with 90% of the funds contributed to candidates and parties going to Republicans. The NRA is consistently the top contributing organization among gun rights groups.

During the 2018 midterm elections, gun control groups outspent the NRA for the first time by a $2.6 million margin. But gun control groups' total $23.5 million in 2020 election spending was dwarfed by the NRA's spending that cycle, and gun rights groups outspent gun control advocates during the 2022 midterm elections..

The NRA spent $13.3 million during the 2022 midterms. That's as much money as gun control groups spent during the 2022 election cycle, but down significantly from the $29.1 million spent in 2020 federal elections. Most of that 2020 spending went to support Trump in the final months of the cycle, with around $19.5 million of that spending bankrolled by its newly created NRA Victory Fund super PAC and $9 million by its traditional PAC.

Just four years earlier, the group spent $54.4 million during the 2016 election cycle, breaking the group's prior spending records. Of that, $31.2 million went to supporting Trump's first presidential campaign. Most of the NRA's 2016 spending was routed through its main 501(c)(4) "dark money" group, which does not disclose its donors.

During the 2018 election cycle, the NRA made around $9.4 million in outside expenditures, a significant decrease from the $27 million spent during the 2014 midterm election cycle and a massive drop from its 2016 presidential election spending.

Gun control interests, by comparison, have generally been a blip on the radar screen. They've emerged as a greater political force in recent cycles, however.

Those interests gave $54.2 million to candidates and party committees from 1989 through the third quarter of 2022, with nearly all of that going to Democrats. 

Despite being dwarfed by gun rights lobbying and campaign contributions, gun control groups have increased outside spending since the 2018 election cycle. Gun control advocates poured $16.6 million into outside spending in 2020 compared to just $14,000 in 2016.

TABLE: Top 20 recipients of funds from gun control interests among members of Congress, 1989-2022*

Member Party Office Total from Gun Control Outside Gun Control Support Outside Gun Rights Opposed
Mark Kelly D AZS1 $801,103 $6,128 $1,446,419
Raphael Warnock D GAS2 $512,396 $12,584 $4,539,092
Jon Ossoff D GAS1 $407,184 $4,770 $3,365,402
Adam Schiff D CA28 $382,056 $0 $2,191
Nancy Pelosi D CA12 $212,328 $0 $278
Tim Ryan D OH13 $116,737 $0 $9,500
John Hickenlooper D COS2 $109,354 $874 $516,376
Catherine Cortez Masto D NVS2 $101,472 $5,753 $2,859,484
Charles E Schumer D NYS2 $99,241 $0 $0
Val Demings D FL10 $97,966 $13,274 $93
Jason Crow D CO06 $95,896 $747,143 $1,321
Tim Kaine D VAS1 $84,683 $0 $612,441
Jennifer Wexton D VA10 $84,542 $6,734 $6,226
Eric Swalwell D CA15 $82,105 $0 $0
Andy Kim D NJ03 $81,128 $5,807 $15,478
Elaine Luria D VA02 $79,938 $59,838 $7,888
Tom Malinowski D NJ07 $75,140 $0 $0
Katie Porter D CA45 $69,446 $0 $5,875
Abigail Spanberger D VA07 $68,091 $19,458 $12,154
Kim Schrier D WA08 $65,968 $0 $1,735

Most of the gun control movement's political clout comes from two well-connected organizations. Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg's Everytown for Gun Safety super PAC is the leading outside spender supporting gun control. The super PAC spent $6.9 million of the total $11.8 million spent by gun control groups during the 2022 cycle. 

Independence USA PAC, a super PAC backed by Bloomberg, says it supports a variety of causes including stricter gun laws. After spending a whopping $56.5 million on the 2020 election, mostly supporting President Joe Biden, the super PAC has poured $1.1 million into 2022 midterms. It spent around $37.5 million on independent expenditures during the 2018 midterms. The money supports federal candidates who favor gun control and attacks those who do not.

Another major gun control lobby spender is Giffords, an organization founded by gun violence victim and former Rep. Gabby Giffords (D-Ariz.) and her husband, current U.S. Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.), who is running for re-election in Arizona in the 2022 midterms. Giffords spent about $500,000 on lobbying in 2021. The group's hybrid PAC spent more than $11 million during the 2020 election cycle and spent about $12.8 million during the 2022 election cycle as of June figures from OpenSecrets.

Powerful gun rights groups including the NRA and Gun Owners of America have poured millions into lobbying, campaign contributions and outside spending to advocate for the right to bear arms. At least 81.4 million Americans owned guns in 2021. 

Gun rights groups are still powerful in the realm of lobbying, consistently spending more money to influence policy than gun control organizations. Gun rights groups spent a record $15.8 million on lobbying in 2021 and have invested $196.5 million in lobbying efforts since 1998. 

Gun rights advocates spent more than $121.1 million of that total since 2013. Lobbying by gun rights advocates nearly tripled in 2013 after a gunman murdered 26 people, including 20 children, at Sandy Hook Elementary on Dec. 14, 2012. The following year was the closest the Senate came to passing meaningful gun control legislation in the decade between the shooting and the bipartisan gun control bill.

Groups advocating for gun control spent a record $2.9 million in 2021. But gun control advocates, spearheaded by Giffords and Everytown for Gun Safety, spent just $30.1 million on lobbying from 1998 through the third quarter of 2022 -- about six and a half times less than gun rights groups spent over the same period.

– Taylor Giorno, Anna Massoglia, Raymond Arke, Geoff West (November 2022)

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