Midterm Election Poll: Illinois’s 14th District, Hultgren vs. Underwood
We polled voters in Illinois’s 14th Congressional District.
This poll was conducted from Oct. 3 to Oct. 8.
Can a young Democratic challenger win on health care? We made 41004 calls, and 501 people spoke to us.
Randy Hultgren, the Republican candidate, has a slight edge in our poll.
Given expectations, our poll is a decent result for Democrats. But remember: It’s just one poll, and we talked to only 501 people. Each candidate’s total could easily be five points different if we polled everyone in the district. And having a small sample is only one possible source of error.
Where we called:
Each dot shows one of the 41004 calls we made.
Vote choice: Dem. Rep. Don’t know Didn’t answerTo preserve privacy, exact addresses have been concealed. The locations shown here are approximate.
Explore the 2016 election in detail with this interactive map.
About the race
Lauren Underwood is a nurse and former senior adviser at the Department of Health and Human Services under President Obama. 31% favorable rating; 14% unfavorable; 55% don’t know
Based on 501 interviews
Randy Hultgren is the incumbent, seeking a fifth term. 31% favorable rating; 27% unfavorable; 42% don’t know
Based on 501 interviews
This district, in the exurbs west of Chicago, has long had a Republican bent. Dennis Hastert, the longest-serving Republican Speaker of the House in history, represented it from 1987 to 2007.
Mr. Hultgren hasn’t had a serious challenge since 2010 and says his conservative record suits the district. He voted for the Republican tax bill and is promoting the strong economy.
Ms. Underwood, a 31-year-old Naperville native, embraces the progressive label and said Mr. Hultgren’s vote to repeal the Affordable Care Act was her catalyst to run. She is putting health care at the center of her campaign.
Ms. Underwood, an African-American candidate in an overwhelmingly white district, said, “This is my home, and the idea that I might not be a good fit is an idea I never gave a lot of consideration to.”
Previous election results:
2016 President | +4 Trump |
2012 President | +10 Romney |
2016 House | +19 Rep. |
It’s generally best to look at a single poll in the context of other polls:
Polls | Dates | Underwood | Hultgren | Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|
Siena College/New York Times n = 428 lv | Oct. 31-Nov. 4 | 49% | 43% | Underwood +5 |
Public Policy Polling (D.) 682 v | Apr. 16-17 | 41% | 45% | Hultgren +4 |
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How our poll result changed
As we reach more people, our poll will become more stable and the margin of sampling error will shrink. The changes in the timeline below reflect that sampling error, not real changes in the race.
One reason we’re doing these surveys live is so you can see the uncertainty for yourself.
If sampling error were the only type of error in a poll, we would expect candidates who trail by five points in a poll of 501 people to win about one out of every seven races. But this probably understates the total error by a factor of two.
Our turnout model
There’s a big question on top of the standard margin of error in a poll: Who is going to vote? It’s a particularly challenging question this year, since special elections have shown Democrats voting in large numbers.
To estimate the likely electorate, we combine what people say about how likely they are to vote with information about how often they have voted in the past. In previous races, this approach has been more accurate than simply taking people at their word. But there are many other ways to do it.
Our poll under different turnout scenarios
Who will vote? | Est. turnout | Our poll result |
---|---|---|
The types of people who voted in 2014 | 235k | Hultgren +8 |
People who say they are almost certain to vote, and no one else | 247k | Even |
Our estimate | 265k | Hultgren +5 |
People whose voting history suggests they will vote, regardless of what they say | 267k | Hultgren +4 |
People who say they will vote, adjusted for past levels of truthfulness | 288k | Hultgren +5 |
The types of people who voted in 2016 | 329k | Hultgren +6 |
Every active registered voter | 470k | Hultgren +1 |
All estimates based on 501 interviews
Just because one candidate leads in all of these different turnout scenarios doesn’t mean much by itself. They don’t represent the full range of possible turnout scenarios, let alone the full range of possible election results.
The types of people we reached
Even if we got turnout exactly right, the margin of error wouldn’t capture all of the error in a poll. The simplest version assumes we have a perfect random sample of the voting population. We do not.
People who respond to surveys are almost always too old, too white, too educated and too politically engaged to accurately represent everyone.
How successful we were in reaching different kinds of voters
Called | Inter- viewed | Success rate | Our responses | Goal | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
18 to 29 | 2100 | 30 | 1 in 70 | 6% | 8% |
30 to 64 | 20043 | 316 | 1 in 63 | 63% | 64% |
65 and older | 6273 | 155 | 1 in 40 | 31% | 28% |
Male | 12596 | 242 | 1 in 52 | 48% | 48% |
Female | 15854 | 259 | 1 in 61 | 52% | 52% |
White | 22418 | 403 | 1 in 56 | 80% | 78% |
Nonwhite | 3283 | 44 | 1 in 75 | 9% | 10% |
Cell | 17727 | 298 | 1 in 59 | 59% | — |
Landline | 10723 | 203 | 1 in 53 | 41% | — |
Based on administrative records. Some characteristics are missing or incorrect. Many voters are called multiple times.
Pollsters compensate by giving more weight to respondents from under-represented groups.
Here, we’re weighting by age, primary vote, gender, likelihood of voting, race, education and region, mainly using data from voting records files compiled by L2, a nonpartisan voter file vendor.
But weighting works only if you weight by the right categories and you know what the composition of the electorate will be. In 2016, many pollsters didn’t weight by education and overestimated Hillary Clinton’s standing as a result.
Here are other common ways to weight a poll:
Our poll under different weighting schemes
Our poll result | |
---|---|
Don’t weight by primary vote, like most public polls | Hultgren +4 |
Weight using census data instead of voting records, like most public polls | Hultgren +4 |
Don’t weight by education, like many polls in 2016 | Hultgren +4 |
Our estimate | Hultgren +5 |
All estimates based on 501 interviews
Just because one candidate leads in all of these different weighting scenarios doesn’t mean much by itself. They don’t represent the full range of possible weighting scenarios, let alone the full range of possible election results.
Undecided voters
About 10 percent of voters said that they were undecided or refused to tell us whom they would vote for.
If they were to break 3 to 1 in favor of Democrats, that alone would be enough to change the lead in our poll, assuming we did everything else perfectly. (We could also be wrong on turnout or our sample could be unrepresentative. Or other voters could change their minds.)
Issues and other questions
We're asking voters whether they support Brett Kavanaugh's nomination to the Supreme Court and whether they believe the sexual assault accusations against him.
We're also asking voters about feminism and whether they think it's important to elect more women to public office.
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president?
Approve | Disapp. | Don’t know | |
---|---|---|---|
Voters n = 500 | 46% | 49% | 5% |
Would you prefer Republicans to retain control of the House of Representatives or would you prefer Democrats to take control?
Reps. keep House | Dems. take House | Don’t know | |
---|---|---|---|
Voters n = 501 | 50% | 43% | 7% |
Do you support or oppose Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination to the United States Supreme Court?
support | oppose | Don’t know | |
---|---|---|---|
Voters n = 501 | 51% | 45% | 5% |
As you may know, Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh has been accused of committing sexual assault when he was a teenager. Would you say you believe the allegations, you do not believe the allegations, or you simply are unable to come to a conclusion?
Believe | Do not believe | Don’t know | |
---|---|---|---|
Voters n = 501 | 32% | 36% | 32% |
Do you support electing more people who describe themselves as feminists?
support | oppose | Don’t know | |
---|---|---|---|
Voters n = 501 | 50% | 35% | 15% |
Is it important to elect more women to public office?
agree | disagree | Don’t know | |
---|---|---|---|
Voters n = 500 | 77% | 14% | 9% |
As you think about your member of Congress, would you prefer your representative to support President Trump and his agenda, or to serve as a check on the president and his agenda?
Support | Check | Don’t know | |
---|---|---|---|
Voters n = 501 | 43% | 51% | 6% |
Percentages are weighted to resemble likely voters.
What different types of voters said
Voters nationwide are deeply divided along demographic lines. Our poll suggests divisions too. But don’t overinterpret these tables. Results among subgroups may not be representative or reliable. Be especially careful with groups with fewer than 100 respondents, shown here in stripes.
Gender
Dem. | Rep. | Und. | |
---|---|---|---|
Female n = 259 / 52% of voters | 50% | 42% | 9% |
Male 242 / 48% | 35% | 54% | 11% |
Age
Dem. | Rep. | Und. | |
---|---|---|---|
18 to 29 n = 33 / 8% of voters | 43% | 52% | 5% |
30 to 44 89 / 16% | 51% | 33% | 16% |
45 to 64 218 / 48% | 41% | 48% | 11% |
65 and older 161 / 28% | 41% | 54% | 6% |
Race
Dem. | Rep. | Und. | |
---|---|---|---|
White n = 425 / 83% of voters | 39% | 51% | 10% |
Nonwhite 63 / 14% | 60% | 35% | 6% |
Race and education
Dem. | Rep. | Und. | |
---|---|---|---|
Nonwhite n = 63 / 14% of voters | 60% | 35% | 6% |
White, college grad 228 / 45% | 40% | 48% | 12% |
White, not college grad 197 / 38% | 38% | 54% | 9% |
Education
Dem. | Rep. | Und. | |
---|---|---|---|
H.S. Grad. or Less n = 64 / 15% of voters | 38% | 56% | 6% |
Some College Educ. 159 / 29% | 42% | 48% | 10% |
4-year College Grad. 147 / 35% | 42% | 45% | 13% |
Post-grad. 127 / 20% | 48% | 44% | 8% |
Party
Dem. | Rep. | Und. | |
---|---|---|---|
Democrat n = 124 / 25% of voters | 93% | 4% | 3% |
Republican 165 / 34% | 3% | 90% | 7% |
Independent 196 / 39% | 46% | 40% | 15% |
Another party 9 / 1% | 16% | 55% | 29% |
Primary vote
Dem. | Rep. | Und. | |
---|---|---|---|
Democratic n = 166 / 32% of voters | 87% | 7% | 6% |
Republican 217 / 43% | 10% | 80% | 10% |
Other 118 / 25% | 42% | 43% | 15% |
Intention of voting
Dem. | Rep. | Und. | |
---|---|---|---|
Almost certain n = 316 / 65% of voters | 43% | 47% | 10% |
Very likely 136 / 29% | 43% | 50% | 8% |
Somewhat likely 19 / 3% | 35% | 58% | 7% |
Not very likely 10 / 1% | 42% | 25% | 33% |
Not at all likely 16 / 1% | 18% | 17% | 65% |
Percentages are weighted to resemble likely voters; the number of respondents in each subgroup is unweighted. Undecided voters includes those who refused to answer.
Other districts where we’ve completed polls
About this poll
- Most responses shown here are delayed about 30 minutes. Some are delayed longer for technical reasons.
- The design effect of this poll is 1.09. That’s a measure of how much weighting we are doing to make our respondents resemble all voters.
- Read more about the methodology for this poll.
- Download the microdata behind this poll.
Data collection by Reconnaissance Market Research, M. Davis and Company, the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College, the Survey Research Center at the University of Waterloo, the University of North Florida and the Siena College Research Institute.